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Influenza Pandemic Simulation Reveals Challenges in Delivering Essential Services During Widespread Outbreak

NEW YORK, April 27, 2006 – A simulated influenza pandemic conducted by the World Economic Forum and Booz Allen Hamilton found that a widespread outbreak of avian flu would severely challenge governments and the private sector to manage essential services, limit the spread of the pandemic and communicate essential information.

Nabarro järeldus simulatsioonist: ükski infra-süsteem ei kesta praeguse seisuga üle 28 päeva..

Key insights from the simulation participants include:

The world will shift from “one of equals” to “not all equal,” as essential workers in health care and other industries need to be vaccinated so they can keep working.
Essential services and employees need to be prioritized – before an influenza attack – to maintain continuity.
Non-essential services must be shut down in an orderly manner.
Telecommunications will likely be overwhelmed early in the pandemic. Some experts speculated that the Internet could shut down within two to four days of the outbreak. This implies that government and businesses must coordinate and plan for the use of alternative communications channels—and telecommuting will not be a viable option. A method of prioritizing Internet access would be needed to allow key organizations and individuals to access information and communicate necessary actions.
Governments will likely direct the general population to stay in their homes, and to minimize social contact.
As a result, the government may need to assume national control, as in wartime, of critical infrastructure and resources including food, fuel, and healthcare. In addition, governments will need to assume responsibility for the “last mile” in delivery of food and other critical supplies to the populace.
“Maintaining business continuity is critical to the welfare of the general population,” said Alain Baumann, Director, Healthcare Industries for The World Economic Forum. “The business community will play an essential role in an effective response.”

Additional findings from the simulation include:

Governments will need to establish and communicate guidelines to the public for seeking healthcare—as well as priorities for application of prevention and treatment by the healthcare sector. Rules will need to be made for the consideration of the critically ill versus others. Alternate facilities, such as schools and churches, will need to become hospitals.
The recovered will need to fill vacant essential jobs; conscription of the recovered (now in effect vaccinated) will likely be necessary to fill vacant essential jobs. These individuals will probably require a minimal level of training to perform the critical functions.
Media can play an important role in communicating critical information from the government and businesses to the public and employees. People will want to know what is happening—and “flu-casters” can help calm and assure the public that progress is being made.

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trüki see kood alumisse tühja lahtrisse. aitäh :)