erinevad kalkulatsioonid
erinevad tõenäosused ja siis tulemused - eks too üks numbritega mängimine muidugi ole .. reaalseid numbreid ei tea keegi
erinevad nakatumise määrad ja nakatunute surevusmäärad ja nende erinevad kombinatsioonid
Influenza Pandemic Level Analysis
US Population 297,702,697
World Population 6,480,130,950
Low infection 25%
Med infection 50%
High infection 75%
Low mortality 4%
Med mortality 8%
High mortality 12%
Very high mortality 50% - (praegune reaalne väikese arvu nakatunute juures, jätkuks pandud siia)
Level Infect % - Kill % - Tot % - US deaths - World Deaths - Comments
I Low (25%) - Low (4%) - 1% - 2,977,027 - 64,801,310 - WHO's worst case
II Low (25%) - Med (8%) - 2% - 5,954,054 - 129,602,619
III Low (25%) - High (12%) - 3% - 8,931,081 - 194,403,929
IV Med (50%) - Low (4%) - 2% - 5,954,054 - 129,602,619 - 1918 infection rate
V Med (50%) - Med (8%) - 4% - 11,908,108 - 259,205,238
VI Med (50%) - High (12%) - 6% - 17,862,162 - 388,807,857
VII High (75%) - Low (4%) - 3% - 8,931,081 - 194,403,929
VIII High (75%) - Med (8%) - 6% - 17,862,162 - 388,807,857
IX High (75%) - High (12%) - 9% - 26,793,243 - 583,211,786
X .Low (25%) - VHigh (50%) - 12.5% - 37,212,837 - 810,016,369
XI Med (50%) - VHigh (50%) - 25.0% - 74,425,674 - 1,620,032,737
XII High (75%) - VHigh (50%) - 37.5% - 111,638,511 - 2,430,049,106