linnugripiblog

We can expect that we will see fatality rates of approximately 1–2% of the population. We do not know for sure, but if cytokine storm is the primary kill mechanism, then the young will be a disproportionate share of the fatalities. The bacterial pneumonia kill mechanism may be somewhat blunted this time around due to the availability of Pneumovax, sparing some of the older population who might otherwsie have made it through the viral episode but succumbed to the bacterial secondary.

(The problem isn’t that 1–2% die in one year. It’s that 1–2% additional die in a period of days or weeks, as well as the normal 1–2% that die over the course of that year. And unlike the normal mixture of young folks due to accidents and older folks like myself due to the illnesses of age, it is substantially those in the prime of life and their children. Or possibly, just their children. And there is no guarantee that the number will either be limited to the 1–2% level, or will ever reach that high. So we must discuss preparations to deal with whatever contingency actually shows up.)

We do not know, but can assume that the flu wave will rise quickly in any given locale, peak and then subside in some period of weeks to perhaps a couple of months. We do not know, but can assume that there will be more than one wave of infections. We do not know whether illness during the first wave will confer immunity during the second or subsequent waves. We do not know whether it is better to get it in the first wave and have done wih it, or shelter in an attempt to avoid any contact with the virus. We do not know whether isolation will in fact shield us from exposure to the virus. We do not know how much advanced warning we will have that the virus is running, and how much time we will have to implement isolation or contingency plans.

And most important - we do not know that things will ever reach up to a Level 3

If we assume for planning purposes that things will be on the bad side, then you must take some time to pursue what the pessimistic implications of Level 3 actually are. My personal assumptions for planning at Level 3 are:

1) Traditional medical care outlets will quickly be swamped, overloaded and become unavailable. This includes both your Doctor’s office and the hospital. Given the lack of surge capacity in the US medical system, one should not count on any medical care being there when needed. This may be overly pessimistic, but that is the planning point I am using. I suspect the local pharmacies will be equally impacted by such an onslaught.

2) Supermarkets may experience a great deal of panic buying as word of impending flu spreads. Before the actual onset of flu in the US, resupply will be able to backfill some of the holes. Once the Pandemic strikes at any major locales, the Interstate system may well have blockages in areas, and there may be attempts either by National or State or Local governments to embargo movement of trucks or trains through their areas. Shortages of commodities will become more the rule than the exception.

3) Businesses will encounter rising absenteeism rates due to illness, death or fear of the above. It will be hard to buy things or to get things done.

4) Utilities should be considered undependable. It is not clear whether utilities are currently planning for such a situation, and as such they may run out of skilled staff to keep things running. Further, once things go down, they may be off for a long time.

5) Going out in public will involve a very real risk of exposure and infection. One should assume that public gathering places will be closed (restaurants, churches, schools, etc.) venturing out from ones place of safety should only attempted with appropriate protective clothing, and full hygiene afterwards, and then only for the most serious of needs.

6) Public safety agencies (i.e. police and fire) will be hard pressed to keep “boots on the ground”. Assistance may or may not be available if you call, assuming that cell or landline phone systems are working at that time.

7) Banks and other financial institutions will probably be closed for normal transactions. Money may be hard to come by, even if you have accounts with cash in them.

8) For those who live away from cities, you may well have family or acquaintances who have fled the conditions within the cities show up on your doorstep seeking shelter. You will need to decide in advance what you will do when this occurs.

9) The depths of these conditions will be short lived. As seen in 1918, after the wave passes, there will be a period, perhaps extended during which illness rates drop precipitously. There will be a return to some degree of normalcy for some period of time. Services and utilities will get back online. Some commodities will again be available for purchase.

As in the previous planning levels, your goal is to insure that you have whatever supplies can be anticipated to be needed by your family for the duration of this situation. As before, we will start with the assumption that you are building upon a base of a full complement of supplies for the previous level. Your individual planning will depend to a great degree on your own circumstances and values. Do you intend to go into isolation while the rest of the world faces the influenza. Will you emerge between waves for resupply? Will you remain out in your community? Will you volunteer to help others? All of these will create different planning situations. How you proceed is strictly up to you.

Reasonable Preparations for Level 3

Just looking at the title of this section, I am not sure that it isn’t an oxymoron. It is at Level 3 where the expectation is that things are going to become decidedly unreasonable. As I pointed out in my section on anticipated conditions, this is the level where ones imagination may provide as good a guide as anything else for preparation. At this point, I have to step aside and let you take complete control of your planning, because only you know what you will need, and what conditions you think you will be facing. But let’s begin.

Since we are assuming that at Level 3, we encounter conditions which are equivalent to the pandemic of 1918, we are assuming a fatality rate of between 1 and 2% for our planning. From this number alone, we are assuming that it is dangerous to be out and around a whole lot, that normal services and commerce will be disrupted to a lesser or greater extent, and that there may be little to no reasonable expectation of medical, public safety or support services. Thus, we need to approach the provisioning with an eye toward being totally dependent upon our own resources for some period of time.

The first question you will need to sort out is whether you are intending on taking the path of total isolation. From the postings of many of the people on this Wiki, I feel that for most of you, the answer will be in fact, planning on total isolation. That being the case, the very next question you will need to answer is the period of time you expect to have to isolate yourself and your family. this is important not only from the standpoint of how much stuff you will need to acquire and store, but what kinds of stuff you will need, and the relative quantities. In areas such as mine, where winter weather is a big factor in comfort or even survival, you will also need to establish, up front, what the timing of the Pandemic might be, relative to the calendar.

As an example, suppose my own family’s Level 3 plan assumes sheltering during two waves of influenza with a total duration of 5 months. Whether we thought that 5 month period began in May or October would dictate very different stockpiles. In winter, a substantial stock of heating fuel would be required. In summer, none. In winter, food storage may be assisted by cold outdoor temperatures, so preparation of a few days worth of meals at once could be accomplished to save cooking fuel. in summer, that would not be possible. In winter, we could derive water from snow if need be. In summer not. In summer, we could gather edible weeds and berries from our property as a food adjunct. In winter, not at all.

I can’t tell you what your plan will look like, I can only teach you what to consider. In my own case, given the way things look now, I am planning to deal with a pandemic which starts with a wave in late winter, runs for a couple of months, eases, and then has a second wave in the fall. Your own plans will differ.

The next question you will have to sort out for yourself is what will be happening around your region during such an event. A city dweller can expect that conditions will be different from what us rural folks experience. Other threads have discussed the possibility of violent behavior. I am not planning on a great deal of that going on around here. Some, but not a great deal. What will the local and federal government be doing. Will populations be forceably shifted. Forceably isolated? Will equipment or supplies be commandeered?

I can’t answer any of the above questions. All I can do is give you the guidance to sit down and write down an outline of what you expect will be going on. Will there be fuel deliveries to your town. Could you buy gasoline if you wore gloves and mask? Would you want to? What about trash pickups. Do you want to put trash out by the road that provides clues that you still have fresh supplies?

Having gone through the lecture, now lets look at the provisioning aspects.

Food: You will need to plan out just how many meals you will need to be able to provide for the period you are planning for. Thus if you are assuming 3 months of isolation for 4 people, that means having to provide about 1000 meals. Have you considered what you can store that will do that? I suppose 1000 Power Bars is one approach, but a combination of canned and dry goods is what I would be looking at. For instance, how many meals can one get from a 25 pound sack of rice. Dried beans are another of the key commodities. Canned meats, Canned juices. How will you cook your food. How much fuel will you need per meal. this is the time to consider how you will achieve your goal. Is there a possibility of safely going out for resupply some time during the period?

How about in the Spring. Can you grow some of your own food? Have you ever tried to do it before now? Do you even have a few garden tools on hand? If birds and mammals can carry the virus, is it safe to do this?

Water: What is your water supply. How will you provide a safe supply of drinking and washing water during the planning period. Again, with 4 people going for 3 months of isolation, you will require a minimum of 360 gallons of water as a bare minimum. Do you plan on storing all of that at once? How will you insure its security against leaks, contamination or theft? If you are counting on a municipal supply, how much backup supply will you have on hand against possible interrruptions?

Medicine: This is easy. You will need a full supply of all maintenance medicines for all family members for the entire period. Or longer if you think things will not be back to full normal operation when you emerge. Or are you planning on having your local pharmacy be available during the period. How will you dress and what protective clothing/equipment will you use when visiting the pharmacy? Besides maintenance medicines, you will already have a stock of medicines needed to deal with influenza in your home. But what other medicines might you need if your Doctor and pharmacy were not available for a while. Now would be a good time to have this discussion with you family doctor and see whether he would be comfortable in prescribing some medicines against anticipatable illnesses. Even if he gives phone direction for actual use, you will at least have the supplies. Even if he can recommend OTC things to have on hand.

Clothing: Do you have enough clothing to deal with an interruption in supply of new clothing. Do you have sufficient to deal with a reduction of washing capabilities? How much do you have now, and how much will you need to stock. Is it capable of seasonal weather changes?

Energy Supplies: How do you intend to deal with basic heating, cooking and lighting requirements. Once you are self sufficient for the long term, you can no longer count on consumable supplies such as gasoline, kerosene, propane and batteries for your entire energy supply. In my own case, our house has alot of South facing windows, is well insulated, and even in mid-winter, can generate sufficient heat from solar energy to stay warm during daylight hours. Have you looked into such simple techniques as opening and closing blinds for heat control. Are your lighting devices capable of being run on rechargeable batteries. Have you considered getting solar battery chargers, solar cookers and solar water sterilizers? Does your house have a fireplace? Can it actually operate as your sole source of heat? Have you tried that? Where is your long-term source of fuel for it? How much fuel will you actually need. Do you have it or can you get it? What is your cooking method. How much fuel per meal does it consume? Is it even safe to store as much fuel as you will need?

Fire Fighting: If you are going to be using candles, kerosene or propane heaters or fireplaces, have you considered you may need to have fire extinguishers around to deal with the problems that could arise from their use?

Communication: How will you stay in touch with the rest of the world. What if cell systems are down but landline systems are still working. What if the only communication is the local (or distant) radio station. Or just the TV station. Do you have battery or crank operated radios or TV’s? How about walkie-talkies if you have family members out and about your property.

Addictive Habits: What stuff can you possitively not do without. Cigarettes? Coffee? Alcohol? Cookies? Consider now how much you will need to prevent having to go cold turkey in the middle of otherwise trying circumstances.

Money: You will need to consider how much cash to keep around. Katrina taught us that in a disaster, a povket full of money can make all the difference in personal comfort and safety. Assume that price gouging and profiteering will be the norm.

Cash: Did I say you’d need cash on had? You will

Self Defense: What are the civil order or disorder conditions you will encounter. How will you deal with what is going on? (And don’t just think Gun.)

OK. There is a great deal to consider and incorporate into your plan before you just run around willy-nilly and buy a bunch of stuff. As in the previous planning levels, the goal is to understand just what your needs for supplies will be, and then stock up your provisions to meet those needs. By definition, you will already have a good start on both the planning process and the provisioning process from the lower levels. You just need to move forward to the concept of longer duration and sparser conditions. If you are seriously considering that conditions will reach a 1918 magnitude pandemic, and that normal supply systems will be compromised, you need to take the time to consider all of your activities and what you will need to put away now so that you can continue to function during the period you anticipate.

It would be very useful to you to actually plan out on a sheet of paper all of the things you will need, and how much you will need. If you then discuss it with another family member, they may see either gaps or overages in your plan. Once you work it out between you, at least you will have mutual support that you are doing the right thing.