linnugripiblog

selgitus - raportis on võetud valdkondade kaupa prognoosid ja soovitused,
kopeerin allapoole valikuliselt peamiselt prognoose, paar üksikut värvikamat soovitust ka

Vision:
The ramifications of a severe global pandemic are considerable.
Consumers will resist leaving the home.
Grocers will see their business shift to fewer visits with increased basket size.
Demand for Internet Shopping, self checkout and home delivery will spike.
Consumer demand will also shift away from perishable products towards prepackaged goods.
Poultry and pork demand should tank.
Consumers may also shy away from imported product and have greater interest in country-of-origin information.
Restaurants should expect to see their business evaporate.
Many food service customers will find it difficult to survive.
Employee response will be inconsistent, but our company will need to find a way to operate with significant staff shortages. Many part time and lower pay employees will abandon their jobs as they perceive the risk being greater than the compensation. We will face shortages in some positions with surpluses in others.
The demands placed on HR will be large as many policies and practices become instantly obsolete.

On the vendor side, disruptions to the supply chain and product shortages will become the norm. Non-product vendors will also struggle to provide their services. Initially, fuel shortages are probable. With a little time, fuel costs could actually drop due to the pandemic’s impact on China.
At a macro level, we should expect to see Wall Street tank. Likewise, some insurance companies could be in trouble. Banking institutions will seek to limit their risk.

MEDIA
Vision:
In the past 300 years there have been 10 documented pandemics. However, the H5N1 threat represents the first
pandemic since the advent of the 24 x 7 cable news network. There is no doubt it will result in an unparalleled feeding frenzy as the fatalities start to climb.
The result will be consumer panic. We will need to be prepared for both the reality of the situation as well as many false perceptions based on nonstop media hype. It is very important that we manage the media very well.

CONSUMERS
Vision:
Fed by massive media hype, we should anticipate overreaction and irrational behavior, especially in the first two or three months. Initially there will be overall panic. Thereafter, consumers will adjust to the new realities of life during a pandemic.
During the initial months we should anticipate a number of consumer behavioral shifts. Some of the key changes will
include:
�� Avoidance of dining out
�� Consolidate trips to the store by purchasing much larger quantities of product in fewer visits
�� Preference towards non-perishable and prepackaged goods
�� Preference towards buying in bulk
�� Desire to buy case quantities of certain items
�� Spike in demand for certain HBC/anti-bacterial products´(whether or not they are effective)
�� Demand for masks and gloves
�� Strong demand for Internet Shopping
�� Strong interest in home delivery
�� Strong demand for self-checkout
�� Avoidance of non-essential retail stores
�� Some consumers will attempt to stockpile product (similar to Y2K experience)
�� Strong desire to get accurate information
�� Demand to see employees wearing masks and gloves
�� Demand to see anti-bacterial wipes at check-out (whether or not they are effective)
�� Demand for country-of-origin information throughout the store
�� Avoidance of products made outside the United States
�� Demand for “USA Only” sections of the store
�� Demand that employees who survived the virus, and are “safe”, to be easily identifiable
�� As schools shut down, there will be a need for families to provide lunches for their children
�� Note that some consumers may conclude that certain large national chains may pose additional health risks
because they import many products from Southeast Asia.

Recommendations:
�� Prepare to ramp up Internet Shopping at all stores.
�� Prepare to scale up Internet Shopping operations. This includes consideration for both people and technology.
Note that less variety in the store may simplify the picking of orders.
�� Develop a detailed plan that identifies the product that should be carried during the pandemic. This should
include more pre-packaged goods and case quantity items.
�� Prepare to ramp up self check out.
�� Consider how current lanes could be modified to isolate the Consumer from the cashier.
�� Develop a program that would support an Internet Shopping program for independent grocers.
�� It may be necessary to support an Internet-Only model of operation in which consumers place orders via the
Internet and drive to the retail store for pickup.
�� Identify partners who can provide home delivery options as an extension to Internet Shopping.
�� It may be necessary to limit purchases of product.
�� It may be necessary to reduce hours of store operation.
�� Develop a plan to identify which foodservice should be moved to retail to meet the need for bulk buying.
�� With any noticeable action step we implement, consider the need to educate the consumer on why the change is
appropriate. Provide an up-to-date message for the consumer that answers the critical questions (for example, “What is your store doing to protect me?”).
�� Explore the potential impact as different types of people take on shopping duties (husbands shopping for sick
wives, shift to shoppers that are not in the target 18-40 age group, etc.).
�� Explore the possibility of working with other retail chains to provide the most accurate and consistent information to the consumer.

EMPLOYEES
Vision:
It is estimated that over 280 employees per 1,000 will become ill with the virus, and more than 28 will die. Approximately 40 immediate family members of employees will perish (per 1,000 employees)
Employees will face many needs to tend to themselves and their families. In addition to the illness itself, other factors
such as school closings will place additional demands and stress on many employees.

Although this will occur over a 12-18 month period, there will be peaks and it will probably be inconsistent. For planning purposes, we should assume that, at times, some departments may need to operate at a 50% staffing level.
We should expect to be particularly hard hit in part-time and lower pay positions. For example, it is reasonable to conclude that many two-income households will decide that the risk of exposure outweighs the incremental income. This could hit retail particularly hard.
Employees will face a natural conflict between the need to earn money and the need to protect themselves and their family. It is reasonable to conclude that employees will react to this in a wide variety of ways:
�� Some employees will refuse to show up.
�� Some employees will want to come to work and remain at work as a way to earn money, protect their family
from exposure and to serve the company.
�� Some employees will want to work even though they exhibit symptoms of the flu.
�� Some employees will exploit the situation and use the flu as a reason to avoid showing up.
�� Some employees will refuse to seek health care for fear of contracting the flu at the doctor’s office.
�� Some employees will expect the company to provide them with food.
�� Some employees will refuse to drive into certain geographies hard hit by the virus.

PRODUCT SUPPLIERS
Vision:
Upstream manufacturers and vendors will certainly be facing the same set of issues. Since it is reasonable to assume that many of our vendors have yet to address the H5N1 issue, we should be willing to provide assistance to them.
There will be significant disruptions to their production capabilities as well as their distribution network. It should be
noted that suppliers will face shortages from their suppliers as well. Even obscure shortages, such as packaging material, will negatively impact the suppliers’ ability to provide product.

SECURITY
Vision:
As the public panics and as shortages develop, the need for security will increase.

RETAIL STORES
Vision:
Consumer and employee reactions will have a strong impact on retail. Both groups will place new demands on the retail store.
Recommendations:
�� Develop plans to deal with consumer demands to see special precautions (masks, gloves, cleaning procedures,
etc.).

INDEPENDENT GROCERS
Vision:
Life will be especially tough for the independent will be facing most all of the same organization with far less resources at their cases, illness (or death) to one or two deliver a knock out punch to the store.

GOVERNMENT
Vision:
In a pandemic situation, the federal and state governmental agencies will have to take control. Typically slow-moving
bureaucracies will create conflicts with the demand to take some kind of knee jerk actions. At least initially, the result will probably be highly inconsistent. We should expect to see well intended but poorly conceived regulations only adding to the level of confusion. With a little time, the agencies will get their act together, but the first few months could be wild.