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Avian flu and business continuity
By Tim Armit
Published UK statistics estimate that if an outbreak of avian flu occurs, there will be at worst a 25 per cent infection rate in each area impacted. The infection will then spread across the country, affecting each person who contracts it for about eight days. As such, in a family of four, if one falls ill on day one, the next on day two and so on, the last will recover on day 12. So we could expect every member of such a family to be away from work for 50 per cent longer than the expected infection time.But even with 50 per cent of their staff unable to work, most businesses would be able to cope. Although an avian flu outbreak would be likely to affect large areas of the country, for businesses, it is already within scope of existing contingency plans.
In the event of an avian flu outbreak, businesses would, to some extent, be able to plan it into their operations. For example: * If it were proven that the disease could be passed from human to human, businesses should assume that work would stop or be adversely affected and plan operations with this in mind. * Food retailers should plan for a rush on goods as people begin to stockpile supplies. * Retail banks should plan for a rush on ATM withdrawals as people hoard cash. * Assuming that people would not want to leave their homes, a sharp increase in demand for internet services could be expected. * Food retailers offering internet shopping and home delivery should expect an increase in demand. * Call centre operators would not want to work together. Companies should plan to implement telephony systems that would allow operators to work from home.